Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.3300°N, 116.9366°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 07:55:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4d7683d92ca2f71c94eb7f1493092dccce887d6d2a2e581c002fb92dadfe6245
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-38.33--116.94-20260723T0755
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.