Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4296°N, 118.9801°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 08:37:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
314h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
97.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.5
- 0.17 over limit
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2674b7f70e5b4c87a3f499f507470ce0d11c3ccdd6acf7f6f19735a50638c731
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-38.43--118.98-20260802T0837
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.