Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
20.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4557°N, 118.9604°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 08:58:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
434h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
79.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
55.4 h
19.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b16a658aecf1a7f3a4d39850adc4b1bbc4cf8154df955e291efb3af9b5378253
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-38.46--118.96-20260807T0858
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.