Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
12.9 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.9 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4066°N, 122.8904°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 20:27:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
254h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
14.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f11488006f0f4a0afc726032acc0995ed980f474cd1c97d34f751880759c72f5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-39.41--122.89-20260730T2027
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.