Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
8.0 miles South-West of Orland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.0 miles South-West of Orland
39.6551°N, 122.2867°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 09:20:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
555h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
33.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
57.0 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 35.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
69983a3bb3ae68f105b25444b40db0d9ba0634060aeacd31f1e1de91ebefc607
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-39.66--122.29-20260812T0920
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.