Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
3.1 miles South of Niland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.1 miles South of Niland
33.1963°N, 115.5337°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 20:19:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 11.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ebc4cfe472580ad253084b0df765d08cea640376b3d9791b794890a296b1e9e6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-33.20--115.53-20260721T2019
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.