Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.4 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles North-East of Banning
34.0007°N, 116.7393°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 02:04:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 11.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0691a9687f5378ac3058cf201bae307b0f9767cd9cd8dd899d99ba20f3f6ec48
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-34.00--116.74-20260722T0204
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.