Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
1.9 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4343°N, 119.2141°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 18:18:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.51
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d5b07ade514a893206562cf3ab4214f651cf75b4bcc294f3bbce90507d46ab66
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-34.43--119.21-20260723T1818
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.