Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
22.1 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.1 miles South of Tracy
37.4396°N, 121.2866°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 03:46:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
130h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
54.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 3.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c2582f3a9d50c1e9dc83999f3b9569c268a1e6b0d75d5f5b61c53e53853cd580
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-37.44--121.29-20260726T0346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.