Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
5.0 miles South-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles South-East of Bridgeport
38.1988°N, 119.1749°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 16:17:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
119h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.34
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3f8a8f5bca8d5b7e183ed34a756506846ccc944d7685a0a634772b5c48a6014a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-38.20--119.17-20260725T1617
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.