Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
14.3 miles North-West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.3 miles North-West of Princeton
39.4859°N, 122.2598°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 17:17:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
96h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
31.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
33.6 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 28.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c3b76e1c34b6a13a12c622b84192110f43b547a6996baf7bb4ccc697bc4aa119
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-39.49--122.26-20260724T1717
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.