Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
33.2 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.2 miles North of Clear Lake
39.5173°N, 122.6466°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 10:32:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
113h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
55.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.59
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
30.1 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 28.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
831aea523f3625bd7cbdda4dc4982624cbb54e3d5433e13073b37e1647dbaac9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-39.52--122.65-20260725T1032
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.