Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.5 miles South-East of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles South-East of Gerlach
40.6311°N, 119.3012°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of July 2026
Jul 20, 2026 21:19:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
93.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 2.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c1e215075622cbacf8686b3ad4d038a5f6796ea24c52359d0b079f81fabe431a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-40.63--119.30-20260720T2119
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.