Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
8.0 miles North of Burney
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.0 miles North of Burney
40.9911°N, 121.6092°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 04:47:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
107h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
155.6 km
55.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e6e0491cc1805ff95cbab8687ba42b2ab7e3f1ce2315b0586de5b4d772dc5f01
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095105_pred-40.99--121.61-20260725T0447
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:51:08 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095105_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:32:57.215800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.