Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
39.1 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.1 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1630°N, 115.2228°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 11:38:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
594h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
132.7 km
32.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
14.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c45ffc2d25ecc4bbc4adbe9ab44363e3c94a553102fd2ebf84f7575c4787f58b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-32.16--115.22-20260814T1138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.