Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
20.9 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.9 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0485°N, 115.2470°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 22:22:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
173h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
37.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
76.0 h
40.0 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
12.0 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 6.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c2176b999c80fc6171258db96cb3757bf6db981dc852ce8ccfa52b0110ec1edc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-37.05--115.25-20260727T2222
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.