Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
1.3 miles South-West of Walker
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles South-West of Walker
38.5049°N, 119.4854°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 22:01:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
53h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 7.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5581e3b4ece0b1bbacbf085c5f700fc9ac9d56adeb971d08a731bd29b57d4b93
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-38.50--119.49-20260722T2201
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.