Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
3.5 miles South-East of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles South-East of Gerlach
40.6311°N, 119.3012°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 10:11:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
113h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
122.4 km
22.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
176bc67174c3eab76ac56ed07252e5e06407baa8b3f5f9040cc7f5075df76906
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-40.63--119.30-20260725T1011
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.