Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.3 miles West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles West of Eureka
40.7616°N, 124.3735°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 22:44:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
293h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
55.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
26.1 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 20.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a9304a99caeef08f13abdf3560e277a19ed588f5e9443ba0b1b2df9bf18f213f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-40.76--124.37-20260801T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.