Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
20.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3444°N, 118.0755°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 18:19:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
120.0 km
20.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
19.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 7.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
86e933b1f009f38ac15f3373c895a94aee0582fc0a09d1a343e8f637544b923b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_202432_pred-33.34--118.08-20260722T1819
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260720_202432_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.