Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
2.3 miles East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles East of Ojai
34.4364°N, 119.2048°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 10:33:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
48h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 7.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b8adcdf39c5bb4905f5f6515584b3e8dcaf847b01ecd0a826c57c9f7f58d8069
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_202432_pred-34.44--119.20-20260724T1033
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260720_202432_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.