Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
138.9 miles South-West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
138.9 miles South-West of Santa Cruz
36.0419°N, 124.2474°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 03:47:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
65h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
272.4 km
172.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bdc7ed8116225f9cc76d64de46077d1b54e96898e03494bd061cc7a182a849ff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_202432_pred-36.04--124.25-20260725T0347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260720_202432_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.