Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
6.1 miles North of Tahoe City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles North of Tahoe City
39.2549°N, 120.1278°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 02:47:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
88h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 8.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
100c9b9c9425103d7d5feadd291fcf45845a6be3f3f92bb9a16e07111cc3a664
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_202432_pred-39.25--120.13-20260726T0247
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260720_202432_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.