Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
17.7 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.7 miles South-West of Eureka
40.6022°N, 124.3735°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 19:19:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
32.3 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 27.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
78c84dba69a9d248b1137340329ad3e1ffff22328325c527774e2d1bcf35ac61
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_202432_pred-40.60--124.37-20260721T1919
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260720_202432_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.