Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
4.1 miles South-West of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles South-West of Chester
40.2794°N, 121.2971°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 11:38:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
553h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
11.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
26.9 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1f8ac4020b89db1e35214299898697a7dde8520b53991f1a571d1ec18490f862
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_034208_pred-40.28--121.30-20260814T1138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_034208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.