Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
4.3 miles North-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles North-East of Ojai
34.4726°N, 119.1738°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 13:27:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
75h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
42.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8dc83e46abc1d6cce9eaec3873d95e5fbb841b7406161eb40ba04ed3ba9d972e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-34.47--119.17-20260725T1327
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.