Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
2.0 miles North-West of Avenal
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.0 miles North-West of Avenal
36.0178°N, 120.1616°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 00:56:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
86h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
24.0 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 18.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2db16485f189907d8a0c5f9ef17d240a3e6c54349a186f0bb4eaa5b1525965ef
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-36.02--120.16-20260726T0056
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.