Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.5 miles West of Badger
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.5 miles West of Badger
36.6028°N, 119.2002°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 04:01:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M1.9
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 10.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
76747d3aadb50837082bfb2bb3ab89168182a9fb85ec050dd7c8e84b9d7223d8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-36.60--119.20-20260723T0401
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.