Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
19.6 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.6 miles South of Tracy
37.4612°N, 121.3605°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 05:39:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
115h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
55.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.19
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 3.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
135d7adf0f82f41456d20ea6b243f66a1000de00baff2207ce619e1ea8eff441
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-37.46--121.36-20260727T0539
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.