Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
13.5 miles North-East of Mina
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.5 miles North-East of Mina
38.5485°N, 117.9553°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 17:33:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
126.9 km
26.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
11.0 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 6.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d034ef7faf9684ebc168bb44513d341dd590f2ff12035770ff437305e243bc5b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-38.55--117.96-20260721T1733
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.