Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7880°N, 122.7330°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 09:46:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 7.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
66424e43b753ad2b53d7e5ee879d30177dcb2835a9c991fb8a24ea1ee30fa55f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-38.79--122.73-20260723T0946
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.