Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
6.3 miles South-East of Truckee
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles South-East of Truckee
39.2838°N, 120.0801°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of July 2026
Jul 26, 2026 23:55:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
109h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
83.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 8.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
05d4c2a2565d9113571e8c5f41822327cd2dc92e8ab2f361bd1982b9e92148a2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-39.28--120.08-20260726T2355
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.