Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
13.4 miles West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles West of Princeton
39.4530°N, 122.2573°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 19:12:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
80h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
34.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
33.6 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 28.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51be37e25e08d0691071d32886848f0b7169f197e81fcb34494ac239f250c7ae
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-39.45--122.26-20260725T1912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.