Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
15.5 miles West of Imlay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.5 miles West of Imlay
40.7293°N, 118.4260°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 02:59:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
40h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
166.1 km
66.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
56656e43120789f61ba58721dc209b6d38c515f817c2c603ae70e2295988e812
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-40.73--118.43-20260724T0259
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.