Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
24.6 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.6 miles South of Calexico
32.3359°N, 115.3841°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 23:06:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
372h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
23.0 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f6c9f18fe0b32ea617c7a0a8818dba3b2665a061cf4c7cbf2ef8d23edfd644b9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-32.34--115.38-20260806T2306
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.