Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
13.0 miles West of Westmorland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.0 miles West of Westmorland
33.0801°N, 115.8403°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 11:38:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
553h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
16.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
27.1 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
212b400f08a855079b866deffd56f4be1abebcfb9bb949ca29c2614d5081ac98
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-33.08--115.84-20260814T1138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.