Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.1 miles West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.1 miles West of Warm Springs
38.2704°N, 116.6583°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 22:01:06 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
24.3 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1668456586418e67a2b2f3dff2206d04ff515969276820141f0961f03c41117e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-38.27--116.66-20260722T2201
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.