Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.0 miles West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.0 miles West of Hawthorne NV
38.4394°N, 118.9397°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 10:55:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
312h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 3.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5facce3ce664e64093e02a4e5d76fa83bac9cc9127a9b5b806081952646bf0c8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-38.44--118.94-20260804T1055
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.