Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
6.3 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5117°N, 122.2888°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 11:16:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
432h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
19.2 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
52fa70e11de233bbea651621a362eecce2c2fe42a7f1093341b0657b72bc0272
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-38.51--122.29-20260809T1116
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.