Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.4 miles South-West of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South-West of Chester
40.2719°N, 121.2971°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 23:27:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
493h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a1ade1dd852099a0c93673615c9894cf1bee54422af7c1c01c81e5c24fbba959
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-40.27--121.30-20260811T2327
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.