Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
39.0 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.0 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1751°N, 115.1956°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 16:08:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
27.7 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 9.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3b4b81db8e0e44c61c5d4fbf1a69706282adfb5222dd8ddf8822c43c87a6c8c8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_010820_pred-32.18--115.20-20260724T1608
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_010820_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:53.182034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.