Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
19.6 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.6 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0876°N, 115.3517°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 23:56:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
26.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
54.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
40.1 h
4.1 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
32.9 km
Pred. 26.0 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
318dc8202592b42d705a922d003f3afc009b5698b0a803c7807f0a0c5734a21e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_010820_pred-37.09--115.35-20260722T2356
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_010820_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:53.182034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.