Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.0 miles West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.0 miles West of Eureka
40.7664°N, 124.3287°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 11:25:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
80.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
28.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9eea75cbeb017ca5485e3fdadba99c151db2ee3da8c05aded90742572eb8bfe0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_010820_pred-40.77--124.33-20260723T1125
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_010820_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:53.182034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.