Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4538°N, 118.9941°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 22:44:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
233h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
99.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.5
- 0.17 over limit
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
394a26640f0010ad816f287cfd049fede83f562bcecf076f9a9ec6be7b14024c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_021412_pred-38.45--118.99-20260801T2244
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_021412_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:53.182034+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.