Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
2.8 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.8 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1536°N, 115.5492°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 20:01:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
27.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
28.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a9b21b1ac08e22251b756aad20d2cb0982e03cd2096ff9ab32f210727379f5ba
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_043453_pred-33.15--115.55-20260723T2001
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_043453_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 16:00:52.308456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.