Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
24.6 miles North of Beatty
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.6 miles North of Beatty
37.2627°N, 116.7566°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 01:45:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
132.9 km
32.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
30.0 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 11.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
36144d3b921233ef007bf4467cdcdad07b031bc43a7895e0e69e426cebcb5e31
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_043453_pred-37.26--116.76-20260724T0145
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_043453_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 16:00:52.308456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.