Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
32.2 miles South-East of Elko
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.2 miles South-East of Elko
40.5262°N, 115.2991°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 22:06:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
247.3 km
147.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
21.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
18.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
99efed0fe32feff08230e3d16b015e704853d8607f0eb498cc85a5f335ca68d4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_061737_pred-40.53--115.30-20260722T2206
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_061737_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 16:00:52.308456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.