Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
12.1 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.1 miles South-West of Eureka
40.7226°N, 124.3693°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 15:19:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
75.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
28.6 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
37d4bc0944d92ce26f9c5a215ac5429f4aba757a90287a174226f607ad51ccd3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_061737_pred-40.72--124.37-20260723T1519
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_061737_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 16:00:52.308456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.