Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
10.1 miles West of Plymouth
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.1 miles West of Plymouth
38.5221°N, 121.0264°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 23:27:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
473h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
157.9 km
57.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
21c8c1d671e5b532599c3414a9daa70f424593af5fd07df2b576d2249c03b0cd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_074748_pred-38.52--121.03-20260811T2327
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_074748_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 16:00:52.308456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.