Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.1 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.1 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4326°N, 122.9069°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 10:33:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
173h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
17.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 5.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9b261005602e538728398a7c6a741d751084211a46567579d29f4f8e62c470c2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_074748_pred-39.43--122.91-20260730T1033
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_074748_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 16:00:52.308456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.